Obesity and breast cancer: a narrative review of prognostic mechanisms, therapeutic challenges, and the role of weight management
Introduction
Background
Currently, we are facing two escalating public health epidemics: breast cancer (BC) and obesity (1,2). BC remains the most diagnosed malignancy among women globally, with 2.3 million new cases and 670,000 deaths reported in 2022 (2). In parallel, the prevalence of obesity has reached unprecedented levels; in 2022, one in eight people worldwide lived with obesity, a figure that has more than doubled since 1990 (1). This convergence is not coincidental. A vast and growing body of evidence has firmly established obesity not only as a concurrent condition but also as a critical, modifiable factor that profoundly influences BC biology, from initial risk to long-term prognosis and therapeutic response (3-6).
For decades, the clinical focus has been on the association between obesity and postmenopausal hormone receptor-positive (HR+) BC (6,7). However, this paradigm is shifting. It is now understood that excess adiposity is associated with a 35% to 40% increased risk of disease recurrence and mortality across multiple BC subtypes (6,7). This adverse impact depends on a complex network of biological mechanisms: obesity fosters a systemic and local state of chronic low-grade inflammation, metabolic dysregulation characterized by insulin resistance and hyperinsulinemia, and profound endocrine disruption. This milieu creates a microenvironment that is highly conducive to tumor initiation, progression, and metastasis (6,8,9).
Rationale and knowledge gap
The influence of obesity extends deep into the clinic, where it presents formidable challenges for effective treatment. It complicates surgical outcomes, alters the pharmacokinetics and toxicity of chemotherapy, drives resistance to endocrine therapy, and may modulate the response to novel targeted agents and immunotherapies (10). Further complicating the narrative is the “obesity paradox”, a counterintuitive observation from some studies suggesting a survival advantage for overweight or obese patients with cancer. This phenomenon has sparked intense debate, demanding rigorous scrutiny of both the biological plausibility and the methodological artifacts inherent in observational research (4,11-13).
Prior reviews have addressed the complex relationship between obesity and BC, highlighting subtype-specific prognostic patterns, biological mechanisms, and metabolic alterations (6,14,15). However, none have provided an integrated synthesis connecting updated prognostic evidence with recent advances in our understanding of metabolic and inflammatory pathways in obesity-related BC. This gap underscores the need for an updated narrative that bridges prognostic, biological, and interventional perspectives.
In response to these challenges, a new field of interventional research has emerged, focusing on mitigating the negative impact of obesity through weight management. While lifestyle interventions involving diet and exercise have demonstrated the ability to induce modest weight loss and improve metabolic biomarkers, their ability to definitively improve oncologic outcomes, such as survival, remains uncertain (16). The recent advent of highly effective pharmacological agents, such as glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists (RAs), represents a potential paradigm shift, offering a level of weight reduction previously achievable only through bariatric surgery and opening new avenues for research (17,18). This review summarizes all the available emerging data on the use of these new medications in overweight/obese BC patients.
Objective
This narrative review aims to provide an expert-level synthesis of the current state of knowledge on the relationship between obesity and BC. This report dissects the prognostic landscape, elucidates the underlying biological drivers, deconstructs the obesity paradox, evaluates the impact of obesity on cancer therapy, and critically assesses the evolution of weight management interventions. The goal is to identify critical knowledge gaps and provide a framework to guide future research and clinical practice to improve outcomes for the growing population of patients with BC and obesity. We present this article in accordance with the Narrative Review reporting checklist (available at https://abs.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/abs-25-39/rc).
Methods
This narrative review synthesizes and critically evaluates the current body of evidence regarding the multifaceted relationship between obesity and BC.
We performed non-systematic literature searches to search for scientific peer-reviewed articles on specific subtopics, such as prognostic implications, treatment-related toxicity, biological mechanisms (e.g., inflammation, insulin resistance), and interventional strategies, including lifestyle modifications and pharmacological agents such as GLP-1 RAs. The primary PubMed search was conducted on February 1, 2025, and an updated search was performed on July 10, 2025 to capture newly published studies. The search focused primarily on publications from the last 10 years (January 2015 to July 2025) to ensure the inclusion of current evidence. The timeframe (January 2015 to July 2025) represents the period of eligible literature, whereas the dates of search execution refer to the specific days on which the database searches were performed. We prioritized high-impact evidence, including systematic reviews, meta-analyses, randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and large-scale prospective cohort studies, to develop a robust and evidence-based narrative. Since there was little peer-reviewed evidence on the use of the new GLP-1 RAs in BC, we also included recent meeting abstracts on this topic. Since this was a narrative review, we conducted the screening together, and consensus was reached meanwhile we wrote the review.
The search strategy employed for PubMed used a combination of medical subject headings (MeSH) and free-text terms: (“breast neoplasms” [MeSH] OR “breast cancer”) AND (“obesity” [MeSH] OR “body mass index” OR “overweight”) AND (“prognosis” [MeSH] OR “survival rate” OR “disease-free survival” OR “mortality”) Filters: English, Humans, last 10 years. For GLP-1 RAs. In addition to PubMed, complementary searches were performed in Google Scholar using and through manual review of abstracts from American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) and American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) congresses [2024–2025] (Table 1).
Table 1
| Items | Specification |
|---|---|
| Date of search | February 1, 2025 to July 10, 2025 |
| Databases and other sources searched | PubMed; Google Scholar; manual search of ASCO and AACR abstracts [2024–2025] for GLP-1 RA-related data |
| Search terms used | The PubMed database was searched in February 2025 using MeSH and free-text terms related to “breast cancer”, “obesity”, “BMI”, and “prognosis”. Boolean operators were applied, and filters included English language and publication within the last 10 years. The search strategy included studies evaluating the association between obesity and oncologic outcomes (tumor response, DFS, OS), regardless of whether obesity was associated with improved or worsened prognosis |
| For GLP-1 RAs, we performed additional searches via Google Scholar and manual review of abstracts from ASCO and AACR congresses [2024–2025] to identify emerging, unpublished evidence | |
| Timeframe | January 2015 to July 2025 |
| Inclusion and exclusion criteria | Inclusion criteria: peer-reviewed articles published in the last 10 years, written in English, addressing the relationship between obesity and BC. Eligible study types included systematic reviews, meta-analyses, RCTs, and large-scale prospective cohort studies. For topics with limited published data—specifically regarding GLP-1 RAs—we also included relevant meeting abstracts from major oncology conferences (ASCO and AACR, 2024–2025) |
| Exclusion criteria: non-peer-reviewed content (except conference abstracts for GLP-1), case reports, editorials, commentaries, and studies not focused on obesity-related outcomes in BC | |
| Selection process | Two independent reviewers conducted the title and abstract screening using the Rayyan software. After unblinding, discrepancies were discussed and resolved by consensus. In case of disagreement, a third reviewer was consulted during the full-text eligibility stage |
AACR, American Association for Cancer Research; ASCO, American Society of Clinical Oncology; BC, breast cancer; BMI, body mass index; DFS, disease-free survival; GLP-1, glucagon-like peptide-1; MeSH, medical subject headings; OS, overall survival; RA, receptor agonist; RCT, randomized controlled trial.
Results: the multifaceted influence of obesity on BC
The prognostic landscape: a tale of subtypes and status
The overwhelming consensus from decades of research is that obesity is a significant negative prognostic factor in BC (3,5,7,8,19,20). A landmark meta-analysis demonstrated that women with early-stage BC and obesity at diagnosis face a 33% increased risk of BC-related mortality compared to their nonobese counterparts (21). This finding is consistently echoed in the literature, with multiple sources establishing a 35–40% greater risk of both disease recurrence and death associated with obesity (6). However, a deeper analysis reveals that the prognostic impact of obesity is not monolithic; rather, it is a highly context-dependent variable intricately modulated by the patient’s menopausal status and the tumor’s specific molecular subtype (7,22).
The association between obesity and poor prognosis is most robustly and consistently documented in postmenopausal women with HR+ BC (7,20,23). Studies have repeatedly shown that obesity in this population is associated with worse disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). For instance, a 2023 study by Lammers et al. found that obesity was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.26 for worse DFS and a hazard ratio of 1.62 for worse OS in women aged ≤60 years with HR+ disease (23). This strong link has historically been attributed to increased peripheral production of estrogen in the adipose tissue of postmenopausal women, which could stimulate the growth of HR+ tumors (5,10).
For many years, the evidence linking obesity to outcomes in triple-negative BC (TNBC) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) BC has been inconsistent. However, more recent and larger studies have clarified this relationship, demonstrating that the detrimental effects of obesity are not restricted to HR+ disease. A pivotal 2015 study by Widschwendter et al. from the SUCCESS A trial revealed that severe obesity [body mass index (BMI) ≥35 kg/m2] was associated with significantly worse DFS and OS across all major subtypes, with particularly high hazard ratios in TNBC (hazard ratio =3.02) and HER2+ (hazard ratio =3.28) cancers (24). This finding strongly suggests that while estrogen-dependent pathways are a major driver of poor outcomes in HR+ obese women, other non-estrogenic mechanisms related to obesity, such as systemic inflammation and metabolic dysregulation, may contribute to worsening prognosis, even in the most aggressive, non-hormone-driven tumor types.
This more unified view coincides with the latest data from the Early Breast Cancer Trialists’ Collaborative Group (EBCTCG), presented in 2024. Analyzing over 206,000 women from 147 randomized trials, the EBCTCG confirmed a continuous, log-linear relationship between BMI and the risk of distant recurrence, with a rate ratio of 1.06 for every 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI (25). This association was consistent regardless of adjuvant therapy, tumor characteristics, or estrogen receptor (ER) status. The EBCTCG data also refined the understanding of its interaction with menopausal status. While obesity is a poor prognostic factor in both groups, the absolute increase in 10-year distant recurrence risk appears more pronounced in premenopausal women (a 4% increase for node-positive patients) compared to postmenopausal women (a 2% increase). Therefore, obesity is a risk factor whose importance seems to vary by menopausal status, ER expression, and molecular BC subtype.
Biological mechanisms: the pro-tumorigenic microenvironment
Obesity adversely impacts prognosis by transforming adipose tissue from a passive energy reservoir into an active supporter of a pro-tumorigenic microenvironment. This shift is fueled by a self-perpetuating cycle of chronic inflammation and metabolic dysregulation, which are intrinsically linked and mutually reinforcing phenomena (8,9,26).
Chronic, low-grade inflammation is central to obesity’s impact on BC. In individuals with obesity, dying hypertrophic adipocytes attract immune cells, especially macrophages. These macrophages cluster around the necrotic fat cells, forming “crown-like structures” (CLS) in breast adipose tissue. These CLS produce pro-inflammatory cytokines such as interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), along with inflammatory mediators like prostaglandin E2 (PGE2). This localized inflammation then contributes to a systemic inflammatory state (27).
Obesity creates an inflammatory environment that disrupts metabolic and endocrine systems, significantly contributing to BC development. Cytokines like TNF-α, released from CLS, impair insulin signaling, leading to insulin resistance and hyperinsulinemia. Elevated insulin and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) act as powerful mitogens, directly promoting cancer cell growth and survival through the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)/protein kinase B (Akt)/mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR) pathway. This inflammatory state further fuels tumor growth. Inflammatory mediators such as PGE2, produced by the cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) enzyme, significantly increase aromatase expression in breast adipose stromal cells. This boosts the local conversion of androgens to estrogens, providing ample stimulation for HR+ tumors, which helps to explain the strong correlation between obesity and this specific BC subtype (28).
Finally, this dysfunctional state produces an imbalance of adipokines—hormones secreted by fat cells. Obesity leads to a marked increase in circulating leptin, a hormone that promotes cancer cell proliferation, angiogenesis, and migration. Simultaneously, it causes a sharp decrease in adiponectin, a beneficial adipokine that normally exerts anti-inflammatory and anti-proliferative effects. This altered leptin-to-adiponectin ratio further tilts the biological balance in favor of tumor growth and progression (28).
The interconnectedness of these pathways explains why obesity’s negative impact transcends HR-status; the inflammatory and insulin-driven components may expand obesity adverse prognostic implications to other BC subtypes that do not depend on ER signaling. Furthermore, these data allow us to advance the concept that it is not adiposity per se, but rather inflamed, metabolically dysfunctional adipose tissue that drives poor outcomes (27,28).
In summary, obesity fosters an inflammatory and metabolically dysregulated microenvironment that promotes tumor growth across BC subtypes. Table 2 summarizes these key biological pathways.
Table 2
| Pathway | Key molecular/cellular players | Pro-tumorigenic effect | Key citations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflammation | Macrophages/CLS, IL-6, TNF-α, CRP, PGE2 | Promotes cell proliferation, invasion, angiogenesis, and immune evasion. Drives local aromatase expression | (27) |
| Insulin resistance/metabolic syndrome | Insulin, IGF-1, PI3K/Akt/mTOR pathway | Directly stimulates cancer cell growth, proliferation, and survival. Drives endocrine resistance | (28) |
| Hormonal dysregulation | Aromatase, estrogens, SHBG | Increases peripheral estrogen synthesis in postmenopausal women, fueling ER+ tumor growth. Lower SHBG increases bioavailable estrogen | (28) |
| Adipokine imbalance | Leptin (increased), adiponectin (decreased) | Leptin stimulates proliferation, migration, and angiogenesis. Reduced adiponectin removes its anti-proliferative and anti-inflammatory effects | (28) |
Akt, protein kinase B; BC, breast cancer; CLS, crown-like structures; CRP, C-reactive protein; ER+, estrogen receptor-positive; IGF-1, insulin-like growth factor-1; IL-6, interleukin-6; mTOR, mechanistic target of rapamycin; PGE2, prostaglandin E2; PI3K, phosphoinositide 3-kinase; SHBG, sex hormone-binding globulin; TNF-α, tumor necrosis factor-alpha.
Deconstructing the “obesity paradox”
Contradicting the vast evidence of its detrimental effects, a subset of observational studies has reported a so-called “obesity paradox”, where patients with overweight or obesity demonstrate better survival outcomes (4,11-13). Such findings have been noted in specific clinical contexts, for instance, in patients with metastatic TNBC (13) or those receiving treatment with mTOR inhibitors like everolimus (29). While biologically intriguing, a rigorous methodological appraisal reveals that this paradox is likely not a true protective effect of adiposity but rather an epidemiological artifact due to inherent limitations in study design and the crude nature of BMI as a clinical metric (30).
Several key biases contribute to these findings:
- Reverse causation (30): this is an important confounder in oncology research. Aggressive, undiagnosed cancer often induces unintentional weight loss and muscle wasting (cachexia) before diagnosis. Consequently, a patient who was previously obese may be classified as “normal weight” at the time of study enrollment. This process artificially populates the normal-weight group with individuals who have more advanced disease and a poorer prognosis, while the obese group appears healthier in comparison. This may skew survival data, creating the illusion that obesity is protective.
- Collider stratification bias: this subtle but powerful bias arises when a study population is restricted to individuals who share a common outcome—in this case, a diagnosis of BC. Cancer is the “collider”. If two independent factors, such as obesity and smoking, both increase the risk of developing cancer, analyzing only cancer patients can create a distorted, inverse association between them. For example, among cancer patients, a non-obese individual may be more likely to be a heavy smoker (another potent cause of mortality) than an obese individual. When survival is analyzed, the higher mortality in the non-obese group (driven by smoking) can make obesity appear protective by comparison (30).
- Residual confounding: observational studies often struggle to fully account for all potential confounding variables. Factors like detailed smoking history, physical activity levels, diet quality, and socioeconomic status are difficult to measure precisely and can remain as residual confounders that can distort the true relationship between BMI and survival (30).
Beyond these biases, the most fundamental methodological flaw in studies reporting an obesity paradox is their reliance on BMI. BMI is a simple measure of mass relative to height and cannot distinguish between metabolically active muscle tissue and adipose tissue, nor does it describe fat distribution (e.g., visceral vs. subcutaneous) (30,31). This is critical in cancer patients, who frequently experience changes in body composition. A high BMI can mask the presence of sarcopenia (low muscle mass), a condition strongly and independently associated with higher treatment toxicity, surgical complications, and worse survival (32). Conversely, a “normal” BMI can hide excess visceral adiposity, another key driver of poor outcomes. When studies move beyond BMI and use more precise techniques like computed tomography (CT) to quantify body composition, the paradox often vanishes. For instance, a 2018 paper by Caan et al. (33) showed that while BMI alone was not a significant predictor of mortality, high adiposity and low muscle mass (sarcopenia) were strongly associated with worse survival. This evidence strongly suggests that the “obesity paradox” is more accurately a “BMI paradox” (33). Future research must prioritize direct assessments of body composition to generate clinically meaningful data.
The only area in which an obesity paradox may indeed exist in BC is immunotherapy as will be discussed below (34).
Obesity as a modulator of cancer therapy
Obesity does not merely coexist with BC; it actively interferes with the delivery, efficacy, and toxicity of nearly every therapeutic modality, creating a distinct and more challenging clinical landscape (10,35).
Surgery and radiotherapy: the physical burden of excess adipose tissue complicates procedural interventions. Patients with obesity experience higher rates of anesthesia-related challenges, postoperative complications such as surgical site infections and bleeding, and a significantly increased risk of developing chronic lymphedema following axillary surgery. Furthermore, sentinel lymph node mapping, a crucial staging procedure, has a higher failure rate in obese individuals. For those undergoing breast-conserving therapy, obesity is associated with poorer cosmetic outcomes and potentially higher rates of local recurrence after radiation (10,35).
Chemotherapy: the impact on chemotherapy is multifaceted. For years, concerns about toxicity led to routine “dose capping”, in which chemotherapy for obese patients was reduced or based on ideal instead of actual body weight. This practice is now known to cause systematic underdosing, compromising treatment efficacy and leading to worse survival outcomes (10,35). Obesity can affect drug pharmacology, even with weight-based dosing. The efficacy of lipophilic drugs like docetaxel may be reduced, possibly due to sequestration in the larger volume of adipose tissue, which prevents the drug from reaching the tumor at therapeutic concentrations (36).
Endocrine therapy: in postmenopausal women, the efficacy of aromatase inhibitors (AIs) can decrease by obesity. The increased volume of adipose tissue and upregulated aromatase activity result in higher baseline estrogen levels that are insufficiently suppressed by standard AI doses, potentially creating an escape route for HR+ tumors (10). Beyond this, the metabolic milieu of obesity—characterized by hyperinsulinemia and inflammation—can activate alternative signaling pathways like PI3K/Akt, a well-established mechanism of endocrine resistance (26).
Targeted and novel therapies: the influence of obesity on newer agents is an area of active and complex investigation.
- CDK4/6 inhibitors: evidence for this class is conflicting. A sub-analysis of the PALLAS trial found no impact of BMI on the efficacy of palbociclib. However, other real-world studies have hinted at a potential “paradox”, with overweight patients showing a trend toward better progression-free survival (PFS) compared to normal-weight or obese patients (37). In terms of toxicity, similar to chemotherapy, obese patients often experience less frequent and severe neutropenia (38). These inconsistent findings suggest that BMI is an inadequate proxy, and that outcomes may be more closely related to specific body composition parameters like visceral adipose tissue, which one meta-analysis found was associated with significant PFS gains (39).
- Immunotherapy: this is the one area where a biologically plausible obesity paradox may exist (34,40). The state of chronic, low-grade inflammation and metabolic stress in obesity can lead to T-cell exhaustion, characterized by increased expression of immune checkpoint proteins like PD-1 and its ligand, PD-L1. This pre-existing immune suppression may render tumors in obese patients “pre-primed” and more susceptible to the effects of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) (40). Preliminary data in TNBC suggest that obese patients may have higher rates of pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant immunotherapy (34). This turns a major risk factor into a potential predictive biomarker, representing a complete change in thinking in how the field views the interaction between host metabolism and anti-tumor immunity.
In summary, obesity interferes with the safety and effectiveness of multiple BC treatments, influencing outcomes across modalities. Table 3 provides a concise overview of these therapy-specific effects.
Table 3
| Treatment modality | Impact on efficacy | Impact on toxicity | Key citations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surgery/radiation | Higher local recurrence risk (variable); lower sentinel node mapping success | Increased surgical complications (infection, bleeding), lymphedema; poorer cosmetic outcomes | (10,35) |
| Chemotherapy (general) | Risk of underdosing from dose-capping, leading to worse survival | Lower hematologic toxicity (neutropenia) but higher non-hematologic toxicity (neuropathy, cardiotoxicity) | (10,35) |
| Taxanes | Potentially reduced efficacy due to sequestration in adipose tissue (lipophilicity) | Increased risk of peripheral neuropathy | (36) |
| Endocrine therapy (AIs) | Blunted response due to higher baseline estrogen; resistance driven by metabolic pathways (PI3K/Akt) | Increased risk of joint symptoms; higher rates of treatment discontinuation | (10,35) |
| CDK4/6 inhibitors | Conflicting evidence: some studies suggest no impact, others a potential benefit for overweight patients | Lower rates of neutropenia in overweight/obese patients | (37-39) |
| Immunotherapy (ICIs) | Potential for enhanced response (“obesity paradox”) due to pre-existing T-cell exhaustion (PD-1/PD-L1 upregulation) | Potential for increased immune-related adverse events due to baseline inflammation | (34) |
AIs, aromatase inhibitors; Akt, protein kinase B; BC, breast cancer; CDK4/6, cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6; ICIs, immune checkpoint inhibitors; PD-1, programmed cell death protein 1; PD-L1, programmed death-ligand 1; PI3K, phosphoinositide 3-kinase.
Interventional strategies: the pursuit of improved outcomes
Given the profound negative impact of obesity on BC prognosis, a critical area of research has focused on whether this risk is modifiable through weight management interventions. This field is at a major inflection point, moving from an era dominated by lifestyle interventions to a new frontier of potent pharmacological agents.
Lifestyle interventions (diet and exercise): for over two decades, RCTs have tested the impact of lifestyle interventions on BC outcomes. Landmark studies like the Women’s Intervention Nutrition Study (WINS) (41) and SUCCESS trial (42,43) provided valuable insights. These trials, along with numerous smaller studies, have consistently shown that structured programs involving dietary changes (e.g., low-fat, plant-based diets) and increased physical activity can successfully induce modest but clinically meaningful weight loss, typically in the range of 2% to 6% of baseline body weight (44). These interventions have also been shown to favorably modulate key biological mediators, reducing estradiol levels (45), improving markers of glucose homeostasis, and reducing levels of inflammatory cytokines (8).
It is clear that weight loss interventions, combining diet, exercise, and behavior modification, can significantly reduce the weight of BC patients (16). However, the efficacy of these weight-loss interventions on oncological outcomes such as DFS and OS after a BC diagnosis remains inconclusive due to the limited number, small sample sizes, and short follow-up duration of many interventional studies according to a meta-analysis by Playdon et al. (16). Possibly the small weight loss produced by these non-pharmacologic interventions may help to explain why these studies do not lead in aggregate to statistically significant changes in DFS or OS (16).
The new frontier: pharmacological intervention with GLP-1 RAs: given the limited effectiveness of lifestyle interventions, there’s growing interest in powerful pharmacological solutions. These could offer a less invasive alternative to bariatric surgery, currently the most effective weight-loss treatment, thereby addressing a significant therapeutic gap (46,47). GLP-1 RAs, such as semaglutide and tirzepatide, represent a major change in the field. In the general population, these agents induce substantial weight loss of 15% to 22%, a magnitude previously only achievable with bariatric surgery (48).
Early, retrospective data on their use in BC survivors are now emerging. These studies confirm that GLP-1 RAs are effective (18,49), but its weight loss effect appears to be attenuated in this population, with average reductions closer to 3–5% (17). This blunted response is particularly notable in patients concurrently receiving endocrine therapy, suggesting a possible drug-drug interaction or an alteration in metabolic physiology unique to this patient group (17).
Regarding oncologic safety and efficacy, the current real-world evidence is preliminary but reassuring. Retrospective analyses have not found an increased risk of BC recurrence in patients using GLP-1 RAs (17,18,49). Intriguingly, one large study reported a significant improvement in all-cause mortality, though not in DFS, suggesting that the primary benefit may stem from cardiovascular protection in this high-risk population (50).
TRIM-EBC trial (51) illustrates the new directions clinical trials may pursue in this area. This innovative study will test whether potent weight loss induced by tirzepatide in high-risk, early-stage BC patients can lead to the clearance of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)—a sensitive marker of minimal residual disease and a strong predictor of recurrence. By using ctDNA as a primary endpoint, TRIM-EBC can provide a much faster assessment of the direct impact of pharmacological weight loss on cancer biology. This trial, if positive, could establish metabolic management as a central pillar of BC treatment.
In summary, weight-management strategies range from modest lifestyle programs to emerging pharmacologic approaches, each with distinct effects on outcomes. Table 4 provides a comparative summary of major weight management trials in BC.
Table 4
| Trial acronym | Intervention type | Population | Key weight loss finding | Primary oncologic outcome/status | Key citations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WINS | Low-fat diet | Early-stage BC | ~2.7 kg loss over 5 years | Improved RFS | (41) |
| SUCCESS C | Telephone-based lifestyle | HER2-negative EBC (BMI ≥24 kg/m2) | ~1.0 kg loss (vs. ~1.0 kg gain in control) | No DFS benefit in ITT; benefit seen in completers | (42,43) |
| GLP-1 RA (real-world) | Retrospective GLP-1 RA use | Mixed BC survivors | Modest, attenuated loss (~3–5%) | No DFS difference; improved OS (retrospective) | (17) |
| TRIM-EBC | Prospective tirzepatide | High-risk EBC (ctDNA-positive) | Target >10% loss | ctDNA clearance (results pending) | (51) |
BC, breast cancer; BMI, body mass index; ctDNA, circulating tumor DNA; DFS, disease-free survival; EBC, early breast cancer; GLP-1, glucagon-like peptide-1; HER2, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2; ITT, intention-to-treat; OS, overall survival; RA, receptor agonist; RFS, relapse-free survival; WINS, Women’s Intervention Nutrition Study.
Discussion
The evidence synthesized in this review suggests that the relationship between obesity and BC is complex and clinically significant. It is no longer sufficient to view obesity as a simple comorbidity. Instead, it must be recognized as a fundamental modulator of tumor biology that influences prognosis and directly interferes with the efficacy and toxicity of treatment (6,10). The overarching theme is that the negative impact of obesity is driven by a network of interconnected inflammatory, metabolic, and hormonal pathways (26,27). This biological reality transcends simple metrics like BMI, demanding a more nuanced clinical approach (31).
The “obesity paradox” is now seen as a potentially settled methodological issue (31). The consistent demonstration of biases such as reverse causation, collider stratification, and the profound inadequacy of BMI as a proxy for metabolic health indicates that the paradoxical survival benefit seen in some studies is an artifact, not a biological reality. This conclusion has a critical implication: the field must move beyond BMI and toward a new standard that incorporates more precise measures of body composition, such as visceral adiposity and muscle mass (sarcopenia), to accurately risk-stratify patients and understand treatment effects (31).
These advances also apply to patient counseling about metabolic demands in cancer. While cancer cells demonstrate a high reliance on glucose via the Warburg effect, contributing to the rationale for limiting excessive carbohydrate intake, current supportive care often emphasizes high-carbohydrate diets primarily to combat weight loss and cachexia during intensive treatment. The evidence underscores the necessity of individualized dietary counseling, incorporating potential benefits from controlled fasting or low-carbohydrate regimens alongside careful management of nutritional status. This dual approach can empower patients to make informed lifestyle choices that balance metabolic targeting and overall health during cancer therapy, supporting integration of metabolic management into oncologic care (1,2). The clinical implications of the findings here described are substantial. The fact that obesity alters the therapeutic window for chemotherapy and drives resistance to endocrine therapy necessitates the integration of metabolic assessment and nutritional counseling into the standard of care for all BC patients (10).
Non-systematic, narrative reviews are prone to article selection bias but allow for a wider coverage of a particular field that allowed us to map out critical knowledge gaps that still remain in this area, pointing toward clear directions for future research, such as:
- Prospective pharmacological intervention trials: the most urgent need is for large-scale, prospective, randomized trials to definitively establish the oncologic safety and efficacy of GLP-1 RAs. While the TRIM-EBC trial and its ctDNA endpoint represent a crucial first step, studies with long-term follow-up for hard clinical endpoints like DFS and OS are essential to confirm a survival benefit and justify their widespread use in the oncology setting.
- Mechanistic understanding of GLP-1 RA effects: elucidating the mechanisms behind the attenuated weight loss effect of GLP-1 RAs observed in BC survivors is a priority. Investigating potential pharmacokinetic interactions with endocrine therapies and exploring whether the underlying cancer biology alters metabolic responses to these agents, and if there are adherence issues in this population of patients, are key priorities.
- A practical, tiered approach can improve cancer risk assessment beyond BMI alone: all patients should have BMI and waist circumference measured, those at higher risk should be evaluated with metabolic blood biomarkers, and, when available, muscle and visceral fat can be quantified via CT scans. The visceral adiposity index (VAI)—which incorporates waist circumference, BMI, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol—serves as a validated, non-invasive marker of visceral adiposity and metabolic dysfunction, independently linked to cancer risk and readily incorporated into clinical practice. Future research should focus on biomarker-guided interventions, using predictive markers such as CRP, adipokines, and the VAI to personalize weight management: for example, a patient with elevated inflammatory markers and significant visceral adiposity may benefit from aggressive intervention, while another patient with similar BMI but better metabolic health may not. Combining inflammatory, metabolic, and body composition markers could enable the creation of a practical “metabolic risk score”, thereby tailoring interventions to those most likely to benefit. This framework makes personalized risk assessment and early intervention feasible and actionable in standard oncology care.
Conclusions
Current evidence indicates that obesity management should be a primary focus in comprehensive BC care together with other therapeutic modalities such as surgery, radiation, and systemic chemotherapy. While lifestyle interventions have laid an important foundation, they have proven insufficient to consistently reverse the adverse oncologic outcomes associated with excess adiposity. The advent of potent pharmacological agents like GLP-1 RAs marks a pivotal moment, offering an unprecedented opportunity to modify this critical risk factor. However, their role in improving cancer-specific outcomes remains to be proven. Future research must prioritize well-designed prospective trials to confirm the oncologic benefit of these agents and to develop biomarker-driven strategies that personalize metabolic interventions. By addressing the host and the tumor, the field has the potential to significantly improve survival and quality of life for the growing number of women facing the dual burden of BC and obesity.
Acknowledgments
None.
Footnote
Reporting Checklist: The authors have completed the Narrative Review reporting checklist. Available at https://abs.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/abs-25-39/rc
Peer Review File: Available at https://abs.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/abs-25-39/prf
Funding: None.
Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at https://abs.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/abs-25-39/coif). A.d.G. serves as an unpaid editorial board member of Annals of Breast Surgery from May 2025 to December 2026. The other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
Ethical Statement: The authors are accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved.
Open Access Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
References
- World Health Organization. Obesity and overweight. 2025. Available online: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight
- Kim J, Harper A, McCormack V, et al. Global patterns and trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality across 185 countries. Nat Med 2025;31:1154-62. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Dignam JJ, Mamounas EP. Obesity and breast cancer prognosis: an expanding body of evidence. Ann Oncol 2004;15:850-1. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- García-Estévez L, Cortés J, Pérez S, et al. Obesity and Breast Cancer: A Paradoxical and Controversial Relationship Influenced by Menopausal Status. Front Oncol 2021;11:705911. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Dehesh T, Fadaghi S, Seyedi M, et al. The relation between obesity and breast cancer risk in women by considering menstruation status and geographical variations: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Womens Health 2023;23:392. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Jiralerspong S, Goodwin PJ. Obesity and Breast Cancer Prognosis: Evidence, Challenges, and Opportunities. J Clin Oncol 2016;34:4203-16. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Lohmann AE, Soldera SV, Pimentel I, et al. Association of Obesity With Breast Cancer Outcome in Relation to Cancer Subtypes: A Meta-Analysis. J Natl Cancer Inst 2021;113:1465-75. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Picon-Ruiz M, Morata-Tarifa C, Valle-Goffin JJ, et al. Obesity and adverse breast cancer risk and outcome: Mechanistic insights and strategies for intervention. CA Cancer J Clin 2017;67:378-97. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Simone V, D’Avenia M, Argentiero A, et al. Obesity and Breast Cancer: Molecular Interconnections and Potential Clinical Applications. Oncologist 2016;21:404-17. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- LeVee A, Mortimer J. The Challenges of Treating Patients with Breast Cancer and Obesity. Cancers (Basel) 2023;15:2526. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Strulov Shachar S, Williams GR. The Obesity Paradox in Cancer-Moving Beyond BMI. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2017;26:13-6. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Modi ND, Tan JQE, Rowland A, et al. The obesity paradox in early and advanced HER2 positive breast cancer: pooled analysis of clinical trial data. NPJ Breast Cancer 2021;7:30. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Schreier AB, Chen S, Zappasodi R, et al. Exploring the “obesity paradox” in triple negative breast cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant immunotherapy. J Clin Oncol 2025;43:e14664.
- Argolo DF, Hudis CA, Iyengar NM. The Impact of Obesity on Breast Cancer. Curr Oncol Rep 2018;20:47. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Brown KA. Metabolic pathways in obesity-related breast cancer. Nat Rev Endocrinol 2021;17:350-63. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Playdon M, Thomas G, Sanft T, et al. Weight Loss Intervention for Breast Cancer Survivors: A Systematic Review. Curr Breast Cancer Rep 2013;5:222-46. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Urueta Portillo D, Mazo-Canola M, Alhaj S. Evaluating the impact of GLP-1 receptor agonists on weight management in patients with breast cancer undergoing endocrine therapy: A comparative analysis. J Clin Oncol 2024;42:e13063.
- Chen PH, Hibler EA. Abstract 735: The associations between the use of GLP-1 receptor agonists, cancer recurrence and all-cause mortality among cancer survivors. Cancer Res 2023;83:735.
- Chen X, Lu W, Zheng W, et al. Obesity and weight change in relation to breast cancer survival. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2010;122:823-33. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Blair CK, Wiggins CL, Nibbe AM, et al. Obesity and survival among a cohort of breast cancer patients is partially mediated by tumor characteristics. NPJ Breast Cancer 2019;5:33. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Protani M, Coory M, Martin JH. Effect of obesity on survival of women with breast cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2010;123:627-35. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Chan DSM, Vieira AR, Aune D, et al. Body mass index and survival in women with breast cancer-systematic literature review and meta-analysis of 82 follow-up studies. Ann Oncol 2014;25:1901-14. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Lammers SWM, Geurts SME, van Hellemond IEG, et al. The prognostic and predictive effect of body mass index in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. JNCI Cancer Spectr 2023;7:pkad092. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Widschwendter P, Friedl TW, Schwentner L, et al. The influence of obesity on survival in early, high-risk breast cancer: results from the randomized SUCCESS A trial. Breast Cancer Res 2015;17:129. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Pan H, Gray R, Peto R, et al. Abstract GS2-09: Overweight, obesity and prognosis in 206,904 women in the Early Breast Cancer Trialists’ Collaborative Group (EBCTCG) database. Clin Cancer Res 2025;31:GS2-09.
- Rose DP, Gracheck PJ, Vona-Davis L. The Interactions of Obesity, Inflammation and Insulin Resistance in Breast Cancer. Cancers (Basel) 2015;7:2147-68. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Iyengar NM, Hudis CA, Dannenberg AJ. Obesity and inflammation: new insights into breast cancer development and progression. Am Soc Clin Oncol Educ Book 2013;33:46-51. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Andò S, Gelsomino L, Panza S, et al. Obesity, Leptin and Breast Cancer: Epidemiological Evidence and Proposed Mechanisms. Cancers (Basel) 2019;11:62. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Lüftner D, Schuetz F, Schneeweiss A, et al. Efficacy and safety of everolimus plus exemestane in patients with hormone receptor-positive, HER-2-negative advanced breast cancer: Results from the open-label, multicentre, non-interventional BRAWO study. Int J Cancer 2024;155:128-38. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Park Y, Peterson LL, Colditz GA. The Plausibility of Obesity Paradox in Cancer-Point. Cancer Res 2018;78:1898-903. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Cespedes Feliciano EM, Kroenke CH, Caan BJ. The Obesity Paradox in Cancer: How Important Is Muscle? Annu Rev Nutr 2018;38:357-79. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Anjanappa M, Corden M, Green A, et al. Sarcopenia in cancer: Risking more than muscle loss. Tech Innov Patient Support Radiat Oncol 2020;16:50-7. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Caan BJ, Cespedes Feliciano EM, Kroenke CH. The Importance of Body Composition in Explaining the Overweight Paradox in Cancer-Counterpoint. Cancer Res 2018;78:1906-12. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Naik A, Monjazeb AM, Decock J. The Obesity Paradox in Cancer, Tumor Immunology, and Immunotherapy: Potential Therapeutic Implications in Triple Negative Breast Cancer. Front Immunol 2019;10:1940. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Lee K, Kruper L, Dieli-Conwright CM, et al. The Impact of Obesity on Breast Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment. Curr Oncol Rep 2019;21:41. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Desmedt C, Fornili M, Clatot F, et al. Differential Benefit of Adjuvant Docetaxel-Based Chemotherapy in Patients With Early Breast Cancer According to Baseline Body Mass Index. J Clin Oncol 2020;38:2883-91. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Çağlayan D, Kocak M, Geredeli C, et al. The effect of BMI on the outcomes of CDK 4/6 inhibitor therapy in HR-positive metastatic breast cancer patients. J Clin Oncol 2022;40:e13010.
- Franzoi MA, Eiger D, Ameye L, et al. Clinical Implications of Body Mass Index in Metastatic Breast Cancer Patients Treated With Abemaciclib and Endocrine Therapy. J Natl Cancer Inst 2021;113:462-70. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Jung YB, Ahn HK, Shin HY, et al. The Impact of Obesity on Treatment Outcomes in Patients with Hormone Receptor-Positive HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer Receiving CDK 4/6 Inhibitors. Cancer Res Treat 2025; Epub ahead of print. [Crossref]
- Albliwi M, Yaghi R, Jalamneh B, et al. Impact of body mass index on immunotherapy outcomes and complications in solid tumor patients: A real-world evidence analysis. J Clin Oncol 2025;43:2603.
- Chlebowski RT, Aragaki AK, Anderson GL, et al. Dietary Modification and Breast Cancer Mortality: Long-Term Follow-Up of the Women’s Health Initiative Randomized Trial. J Clin Oncol 2020;38:1419-28. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Rack B, Andergassen U, Neugebauer J, et al. The German SUCCESS C Study - The First European Lifestyle Study on Breast Cancer. Breast Care (Basel) 2010;5:395-400. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- American Association for Cancer Research (AACR). Lifestyle Intervention Helped Breast Cancer Survivors Lose Weight, and Was Associated with Higher Disease-free Survival Rates. 2018. Available online: https://www.aacr.org/about-the-aacr/newsroom/news-releases/lifestyle-intervention-helped-breast-cancer-survivors-lose-weight-and-was-associated-with-higher-disease-free-survival-rates/
- Shaikh H, Bradhurst P, Ma LX, et al. Body weight management in overweight and obese breast cancer survivors. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2020;12:CD012110. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Campbell KL, Foster-Schubert KE, Alfano CM, et al. Reduced-calorie dietary weight loss, exercise, and sex hormones in postmenopausal women: randomized controlled trial. J Clin Oncol 2012;30:2314-26. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Sarma S, Palcu P. Weight loss between glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and bariatric surgery in adults with obesity: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Obesity (Silver Spring) 2022;30:2111-21. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Klair N, Patel U, Saxena A, et al. What Is Best for Weight Loss? A Comparative Review of the Safety and Efficacy of Bariatric Surgery Versus Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Analogue. Cureus 2023;15:e46197. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Aronne LJ, Horn DB, le Roux CW, et al. Tirzepatide as Compared with Semaglutide for the Treatment of Obesity. N Engl J Med 2025;393:26-36. [Crossref] [PubMed]
- Fischbach NA, Zhou B, Deng Y, et al. Impact of semaglutide and tirzepatide administration on weight in women with stage I-III breast cancer. J Clin Oncol 2024;42:e24140.
- Ashruf O, Mushtaq A, Lin C, et al. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in cancer patients treated with tirzepatide compared to GLP-1 receptor agonists: A target trial emulation using real-world data. J Clin Oncol 2025;43:12027.
- Baylor Scott & White Health. First-of-its-kind Breast Cancer Research Study Explores the Impact of Weight Loss Drugs on Recurrence. 2024. Available online: http://news.bswhealth.com/en-US/releases/first-of-its-kind-breast-cancer-research-study-explores-the-impact-of-weight-loss-drugs-on-recurrence
Cite this article as: Xande JG, de Barros CP, del Giglio A. Obesity and breast cancer: a narrative review of prognostic mechanisms, therapeutic challenges, and the role of weight management. Ann Breast Surg 2025;9:30.
